OpenAI announces something called "GPT-4.5" or very close to it

'-4.5':6 'announc':2 'call':4 'close':9 'gpt':5 'openai':1 'someth':3

OpenAI announces something new related to Sora

'announc':2 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3 'sora':7

OpenAI announces something new related to Voice Engine

'announc':2 'engin':8 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3 'voic':7

OpenAI announces something new related to DALL-E

'announc':2 'dall':8 'dall-':7 'e':9 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3

'altman':2 'magic/magical/etc':4 'sam':1 'say':3

OpenAI announces something new related to music generation

'announc':2 'generat':8 'music':7 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3

Immediate or scheduled public rollout (even if gradual) of Sora

'even':6 'gradual':8 'immedi':1 'public':4 'rollout':5 'schedul':3 'sora':10

'chatbot':6 'gpt2':5 'gpt2-chatbot':4 'mention':2 'someon':1

Update on the partnership with Figure/humanoid robots

'figure/humanoid':6 'partnership':4 'robot':7 'updat':1

OpenAI announces an improvement to GPT-4 similiar to GPT-4-Turbo, which is not major enough to be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5

'-4':7,11 '-4.5':22 '-5':25 'announc':2 'call':20 'enough':17 'gpt':6,10,21,24 'improv':4 'major':16 'openai':1 'similiar':8 'turbo':12

Temporary technical issues (e.g. mic, presentation, lights, ..., not working)

'e.g':4 'issu':3 'light':7 'mic':5 'present':6 'technic':2 'temporari':1 'work':9

Actual presentation (person talking, video, ...) starts before 10:05 AM

'05':9 '10':8 'actual':1 'person':3 'present':2 'start':6 'talk':4 'video':5

"Regulation" is mentioned, in a legal/policy context

'context':7 'legal/policy':6 'mention':3 'regul':1

A tangible product/device is demonstrated

'demonstr':5 'product/device':3 'tangibl':2

Someone from another (not OAI) company joins on stage

'anoth':3 'compani':6 'join':7 'oai':5 'someon':1 'stage':9

Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity Steering Committee mentioned

'authent':6 'coalit':1 'committe':8 'content':3 'mention':9 'proven':4 'steer':7

'mention':3 'partnership':2 'stackoverflow':1

'competitor':3 'googl':1 'mention':4 'search':2

Any mention of the redirect from chat.openai.com to chatgpt.com

'chat.openai.com':7 'chatgpt.com':9 'mention':2 'redirect':5

Mention of AI used by researchers (use cases, how it can help them, etc.)

'ai':3 'case':8 'etc':14 'help':12 'mention':1 'research':6 'use':4,7

The LMSys Chatbot Arena is referenced or shown 

'arena':4 'chatbot':3 'lmsys':2 'referenc':6 'shown':8

At least one specific industry mentioned as userbase or a use case for AI tools

'ai':14 'case':12 'industri':5 'least':2 'mention':6 'one':3 'specif':4 'tool':15 'use':11 'userbas':8

Someone says "patience" or "patient" (not as a noun)

'noun':9 'patienc':3 'patient':5 'say':2 'someon':1

Altman lied about what would be featured at the event in his X posts

'altman':1 'event':10 'featur':7 'lie':2 'post':14 'would':5 'x':13

In the market creator's opinion, the average reaction to the event by journalists is "mixed" or negative

'averag':8 'creator':4 'event':12 'journalist':14 'market':3 'mix':16 'negat':18 'opinion':6 'reaction':9

Any type of new software, AI or not, usable by anyone in the United States willing to pay, is released by OpenAI on the day of the event

'ai':6 'anyon':11 'day':25 'event':28 'new':4 'openai':22 'pay':18 'releas':20 'softwar':5 'state':15 'type':2 'unit':14 'usabl':9 'will':16

In the market creator's opinion, a live demonstration of an OpenAI product is marred by a bug

'bug':18 'creator':4 'demonstr':9 'live':8 'mar':15 'market':3 'openai':12 'opinion':6 'product':13

Any of this words: "Agent", "Agents" or "Agentic" are mentioned

Sam Altman says something along the lines of “what we have now is nothing/laughable compared to what is coming later this year/next year.” 

'along':5 'altman':2 'come':19 'compar':15 'later':20 'line':7 'nothing/laughable':14 'sam':1 'say':3 'someth':4 'year':23 'year/next':22

The start of the stream is delayed at least 5 minutes

'5':10 'delay':7 'least':9 'minut':11 'start':2 'stream':5

GPT-4 becomes cheaper (API price reduced)

'-4':2 'api':5 'becom':3 'cheaper':4 'gpt':1 'price':6 'reduc':7

Presenters give away $10,000 or more in total of free stuff as part of presentation

'000':5 '10':4 'away':3 'free':11 'give':2 'part':14 'present':1,16 'stuff':12 'total':9

The official stream pictures someone wearing a mask (for COVID-19 prevention)

'-19':11 'covid':10 'mask':8 'offici':2 'pictur':4 'prevent':12 'someon':5 'stream':3 'wear':6

An OpenAI employee makes a major gaffe (in the market creator's opinion) that is featured on the front page of the New York Times

'creator':11 'employe':3 'featur':16 'front':19 'gaff':7 'major':6 'make':4 'market':10 'new':23 'openai':2 'opinion':13 'page':20 'time':25 'york':24

Something related to phone calls and ChatGPT

'call':5 'chatgpt':7 'phone':4 'relat':2 'someth':1

Any mention of deepfakes (including any reference to audio or video identity spoofing)

'audio':9 'deepfak':4 'ident':12 'includ':5 'mention':2 'refer':7 'spoof':13 'video':11

Films or the film industry (or related topics) mentioned

'film':1,4 'industri':5 'mention':9 'relat':7 'topic':8

Announcement of software that can automatically make phone calls on user's behalf

'announc':1 'automat':6 'behalf':13 'call':9 'make':7 'phone':8 'softwar':3 'user':11

Announcement of generally intelligent model using speech as input and speech as output, with no intermediate models

'announc':1 'general':3 'input':9 'intellig':4 'intermedi':16 'model':5,17 'output':13 'speech':7,11 'use':6

Greg Brockman creates a new AI voice assistant/personality during the demo and gives it a custom name

'ai':6 'assistant/personality':8 'brockman':2 'creat':3 'custom':16 'demo':11 'give':13 'greg':1 'name':17 'new':5 'voic':7

Someone says “magic” during the livestream

'livestream':6 'magic':3 'say':2 'someon':1

OpenAI announces improved memory abilities for ChatGPT

'abil':5 'announc':2 'chatgpt':7 'improv':3 'memori':4 'openai':1

'altman':2 'blue':6 'sam':1 'shirt':9 't-shirt':7 'wear':4

'altman':2 'pink':6 'sam':1 'wear':4 'wig':7

Something with an anthropomorphic name is announced

'announc':7 'anthropomorph':4 'name':5 'someth':1

The word "or" is said in the first 3 minutes of the livestream (with someone speaking)

'3':9 'first':8 'livestream':13 'minut':10 'said':5 'someon':15 'speak':16 'word':2

Llama, Claude, or Gemini mentioned by name

'claud':2 'gemini':4 'llama':1 'mention':5 'name':7

A less censored model, or an option to make existing models less censored, is announced.

'announc':15 'censor':3,13 'exist':10 'less':2,12 'make':9 'model':4,11 'option':7

On X, during May 13, Eliezer Yudkowsky criticizes OpenAI or its employees for endangering human civilization

'13':5 'civil':16 'critic':8 'eliez':6 'employe':12 'endang':14 'human':15 'may':4 'openai':9 'x':2 'yudkowski':7

A model is announced with a name like GPT-[Word] or GPT-4-[Word]

'-4':13 'announc':4 'gpt':9,12 'like':8 'model':2 'name':7 'word':10,14

Something is announced which is not specifically a search engine but which could still be reasonably viewed as a significant new threat to Google Search 

'announc':3 'could':13 'engin':10 'googl':24 'new':21 'reason':16 'search':9,25 'signific':20 'someth':1 'specif':7 'still':14 'threat':22 'view':17

Something related to live translation with voice in/out

'in/out':8 'live':4 'relat':2 'someth':1 'translat':5 'voic':7

Someone says "Accelerate", "Acceleration", "Accelerated", "Accelerating", or "E/Acc"

'acceler':3,4,5,6 'e/acc':8 'say':2 'someon':1

There is a reveal in the form of "Actually, this [voice/video/script] your thought came from a person was made with generative AI"

'actual':9 'ai':22 'came':14 'form':7 'generat':21 'made':19 'person':17 'reveal':4 'thought':13 'voice/video/script':11

OpenAI does not reveal GPT-5, but does say we should expect it before 2025 (Includes phrasing like "Our next flagship model" or "GPT-4's successor")

'-4':25 '-5':6 '2025':15 'expect':12 'flagship':21 'gpt':5,24 'includ':16 'like':18 'model':22 'next':20 'openai':1 'phrase':17 'reveal':4 'say':9 'successor':27

'3':1 'one':6 'peopl':2 'stage':4 'time':7

'basic':4 'comput':5 'say':2 'someon':1 'univers':3

OpenAI announces an existing model will be open-sourced

'announc':2 'exist':4 'model':5 'open':9 'open-sourc':8 'openai':1 'sourc':10

A rumour is mentioned/addressed and confirmed untrue

'confirm':6 'mentioned/addressed':4 'rumour':2 'untru':7

In general, resolution will err towards resolving things YES in ambiguous situations. If it seems like something might count according to the spirit of the answer but the letter is unclear, it will probably count. If the event is postponed, this market will be extended until the event occurs.

Prop Bets

🤖 AI

🤖 OpenAI

🖥️ Technology

#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden

2024 US Presidential Election

The Life of Biden

Global Macro

Politics

US Politics

https://fortune.com/2024/05/09/more-boeing-whistleblowers-emerge-law-firm/

Boeing

Whistleblower Markets

💼  Business

Law & Order

🎨 Culture

'announc':4 'chines':1 'gpt':3 'languag':2

'announc':4 'gpt':3 'korean':1 'languag':2

Chat GPT-5 release date or timeframe information given

'-5':3 'chat':1 'date':5 'given':9 'gpt':2 'inform':8 'releas':4 'timefram':7

Something related to DALL-E / Image generation

'dall':5 'dall-':4 'e':6 'generat':8 'imag':7 'relat':2 'someth':1

Someone is announced in a new role / position 

'announc':3 'new':6 'posit':8 'role':7 'someon':1

Announcing a partnership with another company

'announc':1 'anoth':5 'compani':6 'partnership':3

'ai':4 'pornographi':5 'relat':2 'someth':1

Something related to economics / finance / stock trading / money management 

'econom':4 'financ':5 'manag':9 'money':8 'relat':2 'someth':1 'stock':6 'trade':7

'chatbot':5 'detail':1 'gpt2':4 'gpt2-chatbot':3

Partnership with the government of a country

Something Manifold finds disappointing (in a poll created after the announcement)

'announc':11 'creat':8 'disappoint':4 'find':3 'manifold':2 'poll':7 'someth':1

A new physical product in the same niche as the Rabbit R1 or the Humane AI Pin

'ai':16 'human':15 'new':2 'nich':8 'physic':3 'pin':17 'product':4 'r1':12 'rabbit':11

Announcement of model with a new "personality", less refusals, or different RLHF

'announc':1 'differ':11 'less':8 'model':3 'new':6 'person':7 'refus':9 'rlhf':12

Partnership on data collection with other companies

'collect':4 'compani':7 'data':3 'partnership':1

'-4':2,9 'cheaper':5 'gpt':1,8 'lite':3 'version':6

Access to a GPT-4 level model is now free

'-4':5 'access':1 'free':10 'gpt':4 'level':6 'model':7

The ability for ChatGPT to make or be integrated with phone calls

'abil':2 'call':12 'chatgpt':4 'integr':9 'make':6 'phone':11

ChatGPT with a knowledge cutoff that is always recent (within 48h)

'48h':11 'alway':8 'chatgpt':1 'cutoff':5 'knowledg':4 'recent':9 'within':10

Live translation through voice input/output

'input/output':5 'live':1 'translat':2 'voic':4

https://twitter.com/sama/status/1788989777452408943

Sam Altman

🤖❤️ AI Alignment

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Technology

AI Media Creation

Resolves on inauguration day [January 20th, 2025] to whoever gets inaugurated. However, if the winner is called by AP and the challenger(s) concede, that is sufficient to resolve this market.

🇺🇸 US Politics

🗳️ Politics

🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

Unsubsidized

2024 US Election

Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.

Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence. If Rafah is invaded in April, this market will resolve N/A. Please read the pinned comments and stay updated there.

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